Where's My Flying Car?

By Dr. Frederick "Fritz" Hibbler, CEO

Growing up during the early 1960s, I was an avid reader of Popular Mechanics. It seemed like in every other issue of Popular Mechanics there was an article about the flying cars everyone would have in the year 2000. For some reason in the 60s the year 2000 was a magical date.  Well, here it is in 2008, and I don't have a flying car.  But, I do have a piece of technology that wasn't mentioned in a single article in Popular Mechanics in the 1960s -- I have a laptop computer.  I'm not sure if it's a fair trade -- I'd much rather have a flying car.

So why did I tell you that story? Because technology plays a huge role, not only in our careers, but also in our personal lives, and planning for future technologies is becoming a very big deal. We're always on the lookout for the latest and greatest gadget or trend. But before we leap we ask ourselves: "Should I buy a new iPod?"; "Is it time to buy a new HDTV"; "What new cell phone should I get?"; "Is it time to upgrade my computer system?"; "What trends are going to impact my life?" To help us answer these questions many people turn to "experts" or futurists who claim they know what the next big thing is going to be. But as we saw with the flying cars, futurists are not always right.

In regards to the flying car vs the technology we actually use everday, where did all those smart futurist go wrong in their predictions?  They actually made two mistakes. The first mistake, predicting something that never happens is called an alpha error. The second mistake, not predicting something that does happen is called a beta error. Both of these types of errors have their own consequences.  The lesson learned from this is that no one is totally clairvoyant when it comes to predicting future, and planners need to take predictions and promises with a grain of salt.

An astute planner will constantly monitor the environment for those predictions that are not going to come true, and at the same time watching out for non-predictions that do come true. 

However, planners need to do more than scour the horizon for the next big thing. They also need to understand how they are going to get to the future. As Bertrand de Jouvenal said, "The study of the future is the study of possibilities; it's not about what will happen but about what might happen. It's not about the future itself (which is not knowable) but about likely possible futures. A possible future state only occurs if its mode of production from the present state of affairs is plausible and imaginable. "

So predicting the future isn't about predicting the future; rather it's about analyzing all the potential paths that can take us from where we are today to all the potential futures we can achieve.  Moving from where we are into the future requires each choosing a path.  And how you go about gathering the information you need to choose a future and a path that leads you there is the true job of a planner.

If the prognostics had done a better job of analyzing paths than of sensationalizing the future they would have seen that the Edsel wasn't going to evolve into a flying car…I then I wouldn't be so disappointed with my laptop.